Amazon Is Still Eating eBay’s Lunch
Posted By: dotCOMreport Editor
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JP Morgan’s Imran Khan surveyed some eBay powersellers to see how things are going.
They’re going better, but not great. Amazon and other competitors are still running away with eBay’s former customers: We surveyed 13 eBay PowerSellers about current eCommerce trends. The results suggest online retail was strong in 4Q’09, with total holiday sales up an average of 25% among all respondents. However, the results also point to eBay continuing to lose share to Amazon and other channels.
The good news: eCommerce strong in 4Q. For all of 2009 (though mid-December), our sellers experienced 18% growth in online sales on average. However, for the holiday season, Y/Y growth was an average of 25% for the respondents in our survey. As several other datapoints have also suggested a more solid 4Q, we are raising our estimate for US non-Vehicles GMV growth in the quarter to 3% Y/Y, from 1%.
The bad news: we think eBay continues to lose market share. On average, the PowerSellers in our survey sold ~56% of their total online volume on eBay in 2009, down from ~65% in 2008. More than half of respondents ranked Amazon as an “Excellent” channel to drive sales, whereas only 23% felt this way about eBay. We think such market share losses are driven by a shift within eCommerce to a multi-channel environment. Thus, even if eBay isn’t losing volume, volume is growing faster at other third-party sites, driving market share declines.
More bad news: PowerSellers’ opinion of eBay not improving. 54% of our respondents had a negative opinion of eBay, and 85% said their view of eBay had stayed the same or become more negative in the last year. By contrast, 69% viewed Amazon positively, and 54% reported their opinion had improved in the last year.
Raising our estimates for 4Q’09 and F’10. We now expect 4Q revenue of $2.30B, near the top end of company guidance, and F’10 revenue of $8.96B, up from $8.80B. Our pro forma EPS estimate is now 1c higher for 4Q (to $0.40) and 2c higher for F’10 (to $1.67).
Henry Blodget
Posted In » eBay & Online Auctions
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Comment:
I have sold on both venues full-time for over 10 years. eBay sales keep falling & Amazon sales keep rising. Also, get better prices on the same items at Amazon. Sometimes almost 3 times as much